These terms govern your use of cseason. By creating an account or subscribing you agree to them. If you do not agree, do not use the service.
cseason is an independent project built and run by one private individual. There is no company behind it, no team, no support desk, and no service level of any kind. Email is answered by the same person who writes the code, when that person is able to.
Treat it accordingly. It is published because the research is worth reading, not because there is an organisation standing behind it. Where the rest of this document says "we", it means that one person.
cseason publishes seasonal research on commodity futures: a rules-based model portfolio, the daily record of what it opened and closed, per-market seasonal statistics, and tools for examining them. Everything published is the output of a documented, replayable procedure applied to historical price data.
Alongside it we publish four further books whose candidates are reviewed by a language model before they are opened. They differ only in what the model is allowed to read: news it finds on the web, the recent price action, both, or neither. The section below describes what that is and what it is not.
The reviewed books start from the same candidates and the same statistics as the first, and differ from one another only in the material the model is given, so the worth of each kind of reading is measured rather than assumed. Before a position is opened, a language model is shown the candidate and asked whether there is a reason not to take it that the numbers do not show, or — for a candidate that fell short of the usual thresholds — whether there is a reason to take it anyway. Its answer and its stated reason are published beside the position. The model does not see prices we have not published, does not place orders, and does not know anything about you.
The review is applied only to the trades ahead — the candidates for a day that has not started — and never to trades already taken. Nothing in the published record is reconsidered after the fact, and no closed position is annotated, rated or explained by a model after its result is known.
This is an experiment we are running in the open, and it deserves more suspicion than the rest of the site, not less. A language model can be confidently wrong. It can invent a fact about a contract, miss one that matters, and give a fluent reason for either. The reason printed beside a position is what the model said, not a claim by us that the reason is true.
The rules-based book and the reviewed books are not comparable on their records, and we ask you not to read them that way. The rules-based book can be replayed over history because its rules are fixed; a reviewed book cannot, because no such review was made in the past. Their records therefore begin on the day we started publishing them and are short. A short record is not evidence either way.
Nothing in this book is investment advice, and none of the qualifications in the section above is softened by the fact that a model was consulted. We make no claim that reviewing candidates this way improves returns. We do not yet know whether it does, which is why we are publishing it rather than asserting it.
Nothing on the service is investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any instrument. We are not a registered investment adviser, commodity trading advisor, or broker in any jurisdiction, we do not act as your fiduciary, and no advisory relationship is created by your use of the service or by any communication from us.
Trading commodity futures and spreads carries a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Leverage works against you as readily as for you. Past seasonal patterns do not predict future prices, and results shown from historical replays are hypothetical: they are prepared with hindsight, no money was at risk, and they do not account for commissions, exchange fees, slippage or roll costs. Any decision you take, and every consequence of it, is yours alone.
You must be at least 18 and able to enter a contract where you live. You may not use the service where doing so would break the law that applies to you, or where we or our payment provider are barred from serving you. Stripe does not accept payments from customers in Ascension Island, China, Cuba, Iran, Kosovo, North Korea, Russia, Syria or Tristan da Cunha, so subscriptions cannot be sold there.
An account is for one person. Keep your sign-in secure and tell us promptly if you believe someone else has used it. You are responsible for what happens under your account.
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A subscription grants you a personal, non-transferable right to use the research for your own decisions, including exporting it for your own records.
Market data comes from third-party sources. We check what we can and publish our method, but we do not warrant that any figure is accurate, complete, or current, and errors in source data will propagate into what is published.
The service is provided as it is, without warranties of any kind. We do not guarantee uninterrupted availability, and while the product is in early access we may change, suspend, or withdraw features.
The service is provided as it is and you use it entirely at your own risk. To the fullest extent the law allows, no liability of any kind is accepted for anything arising out of your use of the service or of anything published on it. That includes, without limit: trading losses, lost profits, missed opportunities, decisions taken on the strength of what is published, errors or gaps in the data, mistakes in the model or its implementation, and any period during which the service is wrong, late, or unavailable.
Two honest qualifications, because a clause that is void protects nobody. Some liability cannot lawfully be excluded — fraud, and whatever else mandatory law in your country reserves — and nothing here tries to exclude it. And where consumer law where you live gives you rights against a seller, those rights stand whatever this page says; in that case liability is limited to the amount you paid in the twelve months before the event.
You may stop using the service at any time. We may suspend or close an account that breaches these terms, and where we do so without cause we will refund the unused part of the term.
We may update these terms. Material changes will be announced before they take effect, and the date at the top of this page always shows the current version.
No governing law is nominated here, because naming one that suited the operator would not displace the consumer law that protects you where you live. Whatever mandatory rights that law gives you apply, and the sale itself is made by Stripe as merchant of record, under its own terms.
Questions about these terms: contact@cseason.com.