This livestock week, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reported a smaller U.S. hog inventory and slower August slaughter. In its September 24 Hogs and Pigs report, NASS put September 1 inventory at 74.302 million head, down 2% year over year; the June–August pig crop was 34.508 million, also down 2%, while pigs saved per litter rose to 11.96 from 11.82. NASS’s September 24 Livestock Slaughter report showed August commercial red-meat production of 4.095 billion pounds, down 1%; beef output fell 2% and pork 1%. Its September 18 Cattle on Feed report counted 11.163 million head on September 1. August placements, 1.617 million, and marketings, 1.519 million, were both the lowest for August since the series began in 1996. USDA’s September 11 WASDE lowered its 2026 beef and pork production forecasts. The September 22 weather bulletin also described continued Southern heat and declining pasture conditions.
This week, the EIA’s September outlook forecast U.S. crude production averaging 13.8 million barrels per day in 2026, above the 2025 record of 13.7 million. Its diesel analysis put the September 14 U.S. retail average at a record $6.29 per gallon; distillate inventories were 13% below their five-year seasonal average on September 11. EIA also reported that publicly traded producers supplied 68% of Lower 48 oil and gas output in 2025, despite representing 2% of producers. Cheniere completed Corpus Christi’s seventh Stage 3 LNG train on August 28, bringing the terminal to 3.1 Bcf/d nominal capacity. In New England, Algonquin natural gas averaged 43 cents per MMBtu below Henry Hub from April through July. CFTC futures-only data dated September 15 showed managed-money net positions of 106,279 WTI contracts and negative 100,205 natural gas contracts.
Softs reports this week put U.S. cotton’s smaller projected crop alongside faster field progress. USDA NASS’s September 22 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin, covering September 14–20, said cotton bolls were open on 65% of acreage and 13% had been harvested; 34% rated good to excellent, 13 points below a year earlier. The same day, NASS reported 429,250 running bales ginned by September 15, versus 464,300 a year earlier. USDA’s September 11 WASDE cut 2026/27 U.S. cotton output to 13.2 million 480-pound bales and ending stocks to 3.6 million; the projected farm price was 78 cents per pound. FAS reported 2025/26 U.S. exports of 12.3 million bales, including 4.0 million shipped to Vietnam. CFTC’s September 15 data recorded managed-money net totals of 91,935 cotton and 225,430 Sugar No. 11 contracts. USDA also forecast 2026/27 global cotton use of 122.9 million bales against production of 117.3 million.
Grains this week were framed by USDA’s September 11 production estimates, crop-progress reports, and global balance sheets. NASS forecast U.S. corn production at 15.8 billion bushels, down 7% from 2025, and soybean production at 4.53 billion bushels, up 6%. For the week ending September 20, corn harvest reached 13% and soybean harvest 12%, both ahead of their five-year averages; good-to-excellent ratings were 57% for corn and 58% for soybeans. USDA/NOAA’s September 22 bulletin reported 4 inches or more of rain in parts of the Corn Belt, delaying fieldwork, while hot, mostly dry weather covered much of the South. USDA’s September 11 WASDE forecast 2026/27 global corn production at 1.291 billion tonnes and ending stocks at 272.1 million. The CFTC’s September 15 data showed managed-money net exposure of 414,460 corn contracts and 241,501 soybean contracts. USDA FAS forecast global 2026/27 wheat ending stocks at 276.3 million tonnes.
This week’s U.S. dairy picture combined expanding milk supply with mixed product output and lower farm prices. USDA NASS’s September 22 Milk Production report put August national milk output at 19.9 billion pounds, 1.7% above a year earlier; cow numbers reached 9.71 million, up 167,000, while output per cow slipped one pound to 2,049. In its September 11 WASDE, USDA raised projected milk production to 237.2 billion pounds for 2026 and 238.6 billion for 2027, forecasting all-milk prices of $19.90 and $19.80 per hundredweight, respectively. WASDE also lowered butter and cheese price projections and raised nonfat dry milk projections for both years. NASS’s September 3 Dairy Products report showed July cheese production at 1.264 billion pounds, up 2.1%, and butter at 189.2 million, up 5.5%; human nonfat dry milk rose 26.6% to 165.1 million pounds. The August 31 Agricultural Prices release put July milk at $20.30 per hundredweight, down 80 cents from June.